Mid Staffs

Apr. 25th, 2013 01:16 pm
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http://skwalker1964.wordpress.com/2013/02/26/the-real-mid-staffs-story-one-excess-death-if-that/

A couple of people shared a link talking about the controversy about mid staffs hospital. The gist is that the entire thing was a combination of (a) cherry-picking data that happened to look bad (b) repurposing data that's not supposed to reflect hospital performance (c) finding scandals when you look hard enough for them (d) a self-perpetuating media myth.

That sounded plausible to me, but I don't know enough to judge it. Does anyone know if that's actually accurate?
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When news was slow over Christmas, a spate of newspapers ran one of those "here's an interesting little factoid" articles about a Israeli archaeologist who dug up a different town called Bethlehem in north Israel, quite close to Nazareth and said "hey, I wonder if the bible story about Jesus' birth is about this one, not the one at the other end of the country".

I was sceptical that Jesus was born in any Bethlehem, but I didn't know enough biblical history to know either way. Here's my understanding of the history, can anyone fill in the gaps?

Read more... )
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I was listening to the news on radio 4. My favourite item was "Many people believed a prophecy that predicted that the world would end this afternoon. It didn't."

I love that they added "it didn't", just in case there was any doubt.

And remember, there's no evidence any Mayan people believed this, the people being believing it (or far more commonly, repeating it) are mostly modern westerners.
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So, the news all over the headlines today (as I found out when wondering why so many strange tweets are appearing), seems to be "30-year-old married couple expecting baby". I'm not sure why I feel compelled to repeat that.
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All four main connections from Syria to the internet cut off (three undersea cables, one overland into Turkey). Minister for Information denies that it was deliberate on behalf of the government.

http://blog.cloudflare.com/how-syria-turned-off-the-internet
http://www.renesys.com/blog/2012/11/syria-off-the-air.shtml
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13701636

I'm not clear on the distinctions in degree in being recognised as a state, but it's a clear step forward to recognise palestine as a state at all (and hopefully good for palestine and israel).
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http://www.juancole.com/2012/11/egypt-constitutional-crisis-morsi-to-meet-judges-as-weekend-clashes-leave-two-dead-hundreds-wounded.html

Do I have this right? After Mubarak was forced to resign, there was an essentially democratic election, though the candidates that did best were the current president, Morsi, and the previous prime minister under Mubarak.

Morsi won, and everyone in the west hoped that a government not dominated by the military would be a good thing, although people in the west didn't really want an explicitly Islamic candidate from the Muslim Brotherhood.

Now Morsi passed a bunch of laws that look like consolidating power and (probably) suppressing any dissent, and mass protests from everyone else broke out, leading to some deaths.

And the best we can hope for is that Morsi backs down and lets things drift along non-dictatorily, and we desperately hope it doesn't degenerate into another dictatorship, a putsch by the military factions, or slide into civil war. Is that an accurate (but extremely simplified) summary?

Trotify

Nov. 21st, 2012 11:03 pm
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Someone I knew from Cambridge (from LARP, I think), Edward, made... a thing.

http://trotify.com/ (video link)

The video is hilarious, as is the concept. It's a non-kickstarter kickstarter[1]. Watch the video first if you can, it's funnier when you don't know what's coming.

[1] I think "kickstart" has been genericised, possibly in record time? You know what I mean. A site encouraging you to make enough pre-orders to finance production, with money refunded if there aren't enough, using a different intermediary or none.

Read more... )
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Syria rebel factions form an opposition government. It's yet to see if it'll last successfully, but it's a good step, it's seeking international recognition from several other countries (neighbouring countries, France, USA, etc). And generally seems a better hope for the future than, um, whichever murderous bastard was the previous dictator, I can't remember.

Fighting and dying continues.

Does anyone have a better read on the situation in syria? I only know whatever's in the headlines on aljazeera english (which is pretty good at listing the international news with less of a pro-UK/USA bias and with a blessed, blessed absence of celebrity gossip and artificial controversies).
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There is a copy of the complaint made to the IPCC with more details about what actually happened:

At approximately 11.40pm on Friday night, 26th October, shortly after I had succeeded in falling asleep for the night, the doorbell rang very loudly and repeatedly, half a dozen times. Shocked and disorientated I stumbled to the front door, pulling on some trousers. To my immense shock there were two police officers at the door, a male and a female officer in high-vis jackets and bristling with equipment as if here to deal with a riot.

They told me they had come to investigate criminal activity that I was involved in on Facebook. I was profoundly shocked and disorientated. I asked what criminal activity. They said complaints had been made about posts I’d made on Facebook about the Jobcentre.

http://tompride.wordpress.com/2012/10/31/police-question-disability-activist-about-criminal-posts-on-facebook-update/
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Betteridge's_law_of_headlines says that you can save time by assuming that any news headline that ends in a question can be answered "no". As he put it, "The reason why journalists use that style of headline is that they know the story is probably bollocks, and don’t actually have the sources and facts to back it up, but still want to run it."

Obviously there are some exceptions. But it occurs to me that a probable corollary is that, in a satrical newspaper, the intended answer can probaby be taken as "yes":

"Could The Use Of Flying Death Robots Be Hurting America's Reputation Worldwide?" Onion video
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Link: http://mikesivier.wordpress.com/2012/10/27/police-move-on-campaigners-for-criminal-acts-against-dwp/

Quote from one of the targets:

I've just had the police forcing their way into my flat near midnight and harrassing me about my "criminal" posts on Facebook about the DWP, accusing me of being "obstructive" when I didn't know what in fuck's name they were on about. They kept going on and on at me, it was horrifically stressful, and they only left after I started crying uncontrollably.


I've not heard anything from the police, so I don't know if there may be some reason this isn't as gratuitous as it sounds. I don't know anything about the police officers involved.

But it sounds like the ridiculous expansion of criminalisation of all sorts of critical online speech leads to police action to shut down free speech pointing out obvious problems in government, exactly like everyone thought it would.

One of my friends was friends with the targets, which is the only reason I know anything about it. And I don't know any more of the details or if there's anything else I should know, but I assume the basic account of what happened is accurate.

Edit: Link from friend who knows people personally: http://miriammoules.livejournal.com/261015.html
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Man freefalls from edge of space 24 miles up, first human to break sound barrier unaided.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19943590
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Scientists discover a particle which is almost certainly the higgs boson: http://press.web.cern.ch/press/PressReleases/Releases2012/PR17.12E.html (Double checking still needed but would be a heck of a coincidence if it were wrong. Need a couple of years to establish if details fit the standard model exactly or is evidence for supersymmetry theories or something else.)

Scienctists invent perfect levitation with superconductors: http://io9.com/5850729/quantum-locking-will-blow-your-mind--but-how-does-it-work

Scientists invent cure for not breathing: http://gizmodo.com/5921868/scientists-invent-particles-that-will-let-you-live-without-breathing via andrewducker
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Wait, what? I seemed to have missed all the middle steps. I heard people talking about this, but there's always optimists who thinks things the government does he/she doesn't like are unconstitutional (eg. there's a bizarre array of arguments why income tax is unconstitutional).

I missed all the steps between "someone suggested this idea" and "it was actually before the supreme court". And 4/9 people voted against it!

In fact, it seems like there's some truth in the "lots of things the federal government does aren't really in the spirit of the constitution" idea. I think the framers of the constitution might well be surprised at how centralised America is (even if the states have more autonomy than the divisions in most countries). However, I think the centralisation is probably necessary to run a halfway coherent country, and has positives and negatives for people on all sides of the political spectrum, so I think the wise thing to do is quietly accept it, and not accept it when it works in your favour and try to break things when it goes against.

Seriously, of all the rights the federal government may have infringed, "the right to die of preventable diseases if you get laid off from your job" doesn't seem like the #1 right worth going to the breaches for...? I assure them, lots of other countries have been bumbling along without that and we don't feel terribly oppressed, honest. Not even Stephen Hawking.
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Do you remember back in the good old days, when people would talk about the publisher of a word processor claiming rights over the books written in it as a joke? As a humorous reductio-ad-absurdum to illustrate how out there something else was? Because obviously no-one would ever try to do that.

Rant about Apple iBook Author, whose license terms tell you to sell books produced only via iBookstore: http://venomousporridge.com/post/16126436616/ibooks-author-eula-audacity

To be fair to the other side, a rebuttal in the telegraph: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/9028628/iBooks-Author-Apple-doesnt-want-to-own-your-book.html which (a) says its ok because you weren't using those rights anyway and (b) asserts very strongly that Apple don't claim to own your book, although don't provide any justification of that. (I mean, they can't sell it without your permission, but you can't sell it without their permission either: I can't see the difference.) I mean, I can see why it makes sense: this is designed to make books which only work in the apple walled garden, and it's obviously good for apple if they make a monopoly over ebooks, so I'm not surprised, but also it still doesn't seem like a nice idea.
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Shamus' completely hilarious description of someone watching people playing Magic:TG

http://www.shamusyoung.com/twentysidedtale/?p=11015#more-11015

Harry Potter sings the elements of rationality song (by Daniel Radcliffe, not Elizier Yudkowski :))

http://www.tor.com/blogs/2010/11/harry-potter-will-school-you-on-the-periodic-table

"German student attacks Hell's Angels with puppy" -- that headline really, really needs to be less ambiguous :) :

http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/06/15/us-germany-puppy-idUSTRE65E39Q20100615
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I was recently debating in another journal about new suggestions for internet filtering, ostensibly to prevent children seeing child-inappropriate sites. This is normally met with -- imho justified -- cries of doom. However, it does seem likely that there would be ways to approach it which would actually do some good -- if you, as a reasonably technical aware person, were proposing something, what would it be?

Suggestions:

* Not support political censorship
* If it requires a large investment of manpower (eg. great firewall) be upfront about where that comes from
* Should fulfil stated purpose of allowing concerned non-technical parents to protect their children from inappropriate content to at least some extent
* Should not be a massive expensive unworkable pointless joke
* Should be clear if it will work a country at a time (probably not) or be a small but incremental improvement over large classes of website.

Whatever the government is thinking about is almost certainly unworkable. But if there were something NOT ridiculous which could be suggested instead, that would actually be better than just "it doesn't work", or at least make clear to people who DO want a solution that it may be expensive.

It might even have positive side effects if (eg) pure spam domain names were caught in the crossfire.