spiralsheep: Sheep wearing an eyepatch (Default)
[personal profile] spiralsheep
- I appear to be a children's book character today.
In front of the people I was with, while they were all looking at me, I took my waterproof trousers out of my bag and unrolled them, which released an adorable cartoonish spider which scuttled away and hid (presumably giggling mischievously).

- Main campaign: "There was no wrecks and nobody drownded".
1. Travelled across variously muddy, mired, and flooded landscapes to the first of today's two riverside study sites. Small river at entirely normal levels, and access less muddy than usual at this time of year. Yet again being a geology understander pays off.
2. Arrived at second riverside site next to large (by English standards) river that was clearly rising more rapidly than forecast. Narrow and overgrown walkway to survey site was partially underwater and only about 2cm above the point at which I'd have vetoed going any further for elfin safety. Am told walkway flooded this afternoon after we left (and adjacent river access points had already been fenced off by local authorities, which we discovered when we passed them as we left).

- Sidequest: pet fierce Battle Pug
While we were out and about a woman walking her pug dog passed us and I bent down to pet him, and she warned me that he always bites strangers (and sometimes also her), but he just sniffed my hand then barked at me when she dragged him away. [/definitely a character in a children's book today]

- Levelling up: heroically rescue dusty tomes from book dragon's hoard.
I scraped into an academic library after the door was locked at the end of the day, using my card and keycode, picked up a stack of six books from the reservations shelf which conspiring colleague had rounded up and placed there earlier (only one of which was an actual reservation for which I had paid), and took them to be figuratively rubber-stamped by the librarian because special collections items need approval and can only be issued for two weeks. Librarian asked me if I'd manage to get them back before library closes for xmas in 13 days. I pantomimed my regret at being unable to comply and, looking as if butter wouldn't melt &c., I asked sweetly if items could be issued until library reopens in January. Librarian, radiating the traditional seasonal bad-will to all library patrons, agreed to additional loan time through teeth gritted in a passive-aggressive rictus of a smile. Hopefully somebody else will infuriate the book dragon enough to put me out of mind and I won't suffer unholy vengeance visited upon me in January.

- Apropos of the previous item, the academic book I'm currently reading has the bestest "List of Definitions and Abbreviations" in the front, lmao:
Abbreviation Appreciation Society )
[syndicated profile] medievalists_rss_feed

Posted by Medievalists.net

The Higgins Collection—one of America’s most distinctive assemblies of arms and armor—has finally reopened to the public at the Worcester Art Museum. Its new galleries offer flashes of the old museum’s spirit, along with choices that may surprise longtime admirers.
[syndicated profile] dailyprompts_feed

She’d picked the new town on the map and moved there with minimal research. Now, as she walked down Main Street, she saw people stealing glances, and one child actually pointed at her from across the street.

ICONS: Various Chinese Drama Fandoms

Dec. 11th, 2025 07:38 pm
tarlanx: Couple in profile gazing at each other on colored background (Cdrama - The Double 1)
[personal profile] tarlanx posting in [community profile] c_ent
Created for [community profile] sweetandshort December: This and That
Theme: Winter

Fangs of Fortune - Zhao Yuanzhou Snow Fall by Tarlan GIF The Double - Snow Fall by Tarlan GIF Word of Honor - Snow Fall by Tarlan GIF Wuliang - Snow Fall by Tarlan GIF YYM-DoE - Snow Fall by Tarlan GIF

For info: I created the icons first then used www.funnyphoto.net to add the falling snow... but then had to crop and resize the output images back to icon size.
 

Thankful Thursday

Dec. 11th, 2025 08:27 pm
mdlbear: Wild turkey hen close-up (turkey)
[personal profile] mdlbear

Today I am thankful for...

  • My family (which includes the cats).
  • Warm blankets.
  • Comfort food (also includes coffee, tea, and hot buttered rum).
  • Not having to cook dinner very often. (I can cook, and even cook decently well, but G does most of the cooking in the family, and I'm very grateful for it.)
  • Some discord servers, including our private family one.

Are bubbles good, actually?

Dec. 11th, 2025 05:23 pm
[syndicated profile] tim_harford_feed

Posted by Tim Harford

Swiss psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross suggested that there are five stages of grief, but nobody has the attention span for that any more. We have leapt instead from stage one, denial — “there is no AI bubble”, to stage five, acceptance — “AI is a bubble and bubbles are great”.

The “bubbles are great” hypothesis has been advanced both in popular and scholarly books, but it was hard to ignore when Jeff Bezos, one of the world’s richest men, sought to draw a distinction between financial bubbles (bad) and industrial bubbles (less bad, maybe good). Bezos, after all, built one of the 21st century’s great businesses, Amazon, in the middle of a bubble that turned contemporaries such as Webvan and Pets.com into a punchline.

There is a solid theory behind the idea that investment manias are good for society as a whole: it is that without a mania, nothing gets done for fear that the best ideas will be copied.

Entrepreneurs and inventors who do take a risk will soon find other entrepreneurs and inventors competing with them, and most of the benefits will go not to any of these entrepreneurs, but to their customers.

(The dynamic has the delightful name of the “alchemist’s fallacy”. If someone figures out how to turn lead into gold, pretty soon everyone will know how to turn lead into gold, and how much will gold be worth then?)

The economist and Nobel laureate William Nordhaus once tried to estimate what slice of the value of new ideas went to the corporations who owned them, and how much went to everyone else (mostly consumers). He concluded that the answer — in the US, between 1948 and 2001 — was 3.7 per cent to the innovating companies, and 96.3 per cent to everyone else. Put another way, the spillover benefits were 26 times larger than the private profits.

If the benefits of AI are similarly distributed, there is plenty of scope for AI investments to be socially beneficial while being catastrophic bets for investors.

The historical parallel that is mentioned over and over again is the railway bubble. The bluffer’s guide to the railway bubble is as follows: British investors got very excited about railways in the 1840s, share prices went to silly levels, some investors lost their shirts, but in the end, guess what? We had railways! Or as the Victorian historian John Francis wrote, “It is not the promoters, but the opponents of railways, who are the madmen.”

Put like that, it doesn’t sound so bad. But should we put it like that? I got in touch with some bubble historians: William Quinn and John D Turner, who wrote Boom and Bust: A Global History of Financial Bubbles, and Andrew Odlyzko, a mathematician who has also deeply researched the railway mania. They were less sanguine.

“Funding the railways through a bubble, rather than through central planning (as was the case in much of Europe), left Britain with a very inefficiently designed rail network,” says Quinn. “That’s caused problems right up to the present day.”

That makes sense. There are several possible definitions of a bubble, but the two most straightforward ones are either that the price of financial assets becomes disconnected from fundamental values, or that investments are made on the basis of crowd psychology — by people afraid of missing out, or hoping to offload their bets on to a greater fool. Either way, why would anyone expect the investments made in such a context to be anything close to socially desirable?

Or as the Edinburgh Review put it, “There is scarcely, in fact, a practicable line between two considerable places, however remote, that has not been occupied by a company. Frequently two, three or four rival lines have started simultaneously.”

Nor was the Edinburgh Review writing in the 1840s — it was describing the railway bubble of the 1830s, whose glory days saw promoters pushing for sail-powered trains and even rocket-powered locomotives that would travel at several hundred miles an hour.

The bigger, more notorious bubble of the 1840s was still to come — as was the 1860s bubble (“a disaster for investors”, says Odlyzko, adding that it is debatable whether the social gains outweighed the private losses in the 1860s). The most obvious lesson of the railway manias is not that bubbles are good, but that hope springs eternal and greedy investors never learn.

Another lesson of the railway mania is that when large sums of money are on the line, the line between commerce and politics soon blurs, as does the line between hype and outright fraud.

The “railway king” George Hudson is a salutary example. Born into a modest Yorkshire farming family in 1800, he inherited a fortune from a great uncle in suspicious circumstances, then built an empire of railway holding companies, including four of the largest in Britain. He was mayor of York for many years, as well as an MP in Westminster. Business and politics inextricably intertwined? Inconceivable!

Another bubble historian, William J Bernstein, comments on Hudson that “the closest modern equivalent would be the chairman of Goldman Sachs simultaneously serving in the US Senate.” That’s a nice hypothetical analogy. You may be able to think of less hypothetical ones.

Hudson, alas, is not a man to emulate. He kept his finances looking respectable by making distinctly Ponzi-like payments, funding dividends for existing shareholders out of freshly raised capital, and he defrauded his fellow shareholders by getting companies he controlled to buy up his personal shares at above-market prices. In the end, he was protected from ruin only by the rule that serving parliamentarians could not be arrested for unpaid debts while the House of Commons was in session. He eventually fled to exile in France.

The railway manias are not wholly discouraging. William Quinn is comforted by the observation that when banks stay away from the bubble, its bursting has limited effects. That was true in the 1840s and perhaps it will be true today.

And Odlyzko reassures me that the mania of the 1830s “was a success, in the end, for those investors who persevered”, even if one cannot say the same for the 1840s and the 1860s. But Odlyzko is not impressed by analogies between the railways and AI. People at least understood how railways worked, he says, and what they were supposed to do. But generative AI? “We are losing contact with reality,” he opines.

Written for and first published in the Financial Times on 6 November 2025.

I’m running the London Marathon in April in support of a very good cause. If you felt able to contribute something, I’d be extremely grateful.

Well that's a relief

Dec. 11th, 2025 01:49 pm
brickhousewench: (AI)
[personal profile] brickhousewench
I was afraid that I've been a little too spicy in our recent department Slack conversations about AI. But I just had a "coffee chat" with one of my coworkers, and he spontaneously commented that he was impressed with how diplomatic I've been in some of our conversations. So that's a huge relief. I was worried that I was being testy/grumpy/curmudgeonly. Well, I have been all those things, but apparently I'm also managing to be polite about it outside my own head. So that's a relief.
goodbyebird: Interview With The vampire: Louis is smoking, literally and metaphorically. (IWTV louis)
[personal profile] goodbyebird
The fixation is hyper y'all. Headvids. Brain zoomies. Giddiness at good characterizations (and, for this particular fandom, the characters being ~an appropriate amount of Bastard~).

❄️ ❄️ ❄️ ❄️
Rec-cember Day 11


vein by vein by [archiveofourown.org profile] morian (2,415 words). Not Lestat being jealous of the sun XD (don't let my comment trick you into thinking it's crack fic, excellent voices in this)
Before he died and was reborn as a creature, not a man, Louis preferred the night. In this city that stretches and groans and howls to life at dusk, he had no reason to favour the sun. His business was the night. People like him, that is to say pimps and grifters, came to bed long after dawn and slept past noon.

It wasn't until he lost the sun that he learned it was something that could be missed.

Though even winters in New Orleans are mild and summer nights leave shirt collars clinging to sweat-slick necks like desperate hands, there is a special kind of warmth in sunlight on the skin. It reeks of childhood and the garden and the roof, of sunrise with his brother.

“I don’t miss the sun,” he will say to a jaded reporter on the balcony of his Dubai altar a hundred years from now. “The reminders it carries.” And it will be true then. But here is a man who ran through the street and nearly burned to death on the first morning he carried the dark gift. And here is a man who grieves his brother, not just one life lost but a thousand possibilities with it.



Fic, vid, and icon recs below :DD

Btw I'm going to need a vampire to greet Daniel with 'so you're the divorce papers I've heard so much about' in s3, thanks. )

WTAF, 3

Dec. 11th, 2025 06:21 pm
davidgillon: A pair of crutches, hanging from coat hooks, reflected in a mirror (Default)
[personal profile] davidgillon

Apparently Calibri is un-American because it's easier for people with dyslexia to read.

Seriously.

State Department to switch from "woke" Calibri to Times New Roman

Perhaps Rubio should also insist they write everything in BOLD CAPS like the glorious leader?

 

at least it's not just me

Dec. 11th, 2025 10:25 am
jazzfish: Jazz Fish: beret, sunglasses, saxophone (Default)
[personal profile] jazzfish
From today's Ask A Manager update:
I am still job searching. It's extremely rough out there, and I have not been able to get very far in interviews for the same job I left at this company because I am so early career. I've been getting feedback from companies when they do not move forward with me that they just have more candidates with more experience, always.
Money is at least sorted for the short-term. Assuming I can in fact sell this place and find somewhere else to live, it's sorted medium-term as well. Beyond that, I refer you to John Maynard Keynes: "In the long run, we are all dead."

(Context makes that quote much more interesting than simple fatalism. Keynes was arguing with someone claiming that certain economic policies would make things worse in the short term but in the long run we'd all be much better off. Keynes believed strongly in fixing what we could now, an attitude I appreciate even when I have trouble implementing it. Can't have a better future if you can't get yourself into the future.)

Books on shelves, roof overhead, food in pantry, snoring cat. Breaking out the xmas stuff this weekend, I think. Could be worse.

Fancake is FIFTEEN

Dec. 11th, 2025 10:16 am
runpunkrun: combat boot, pizza, camo pants = punk  (punk rock girl)
[personal profile] runpunkrun posting in [community profile] fancake

Photograph of a grinning Shiba Inu dog wearing a pink party hat with a 15 on it. Text: Happy Birthday, Fancake. On this day in history, [personal profile] jerakeen made the very first post to this comm. Happy birthday to us!

To celebrate [community profile] fancake's fifteen years of operation, we're taking a two-pronged approach, with thanks to [personal profile] full_metal_ox for suggesting the second prong:

  1. post recs to the comm for fanworks published in 2010 for amnesty (if all else fails, theme: old fandoms should probably cover you, but consider also theme: favorite fanworks, theme: fandom classics, and theme: underloved fanworks)

  2. comment on this post with what you were into when you were fifteen—or what you were into fifteen years ago—what you're into today, and how your tastes have changed—or not!—over the years, or share your thoughts in your own journal and leave us a link here in the comments

  3. a secret third thing???

Happy birthday, Fancake! Thank you for making this comm a community. 🎂

John Varley (1947 - 2025)

Dec. 11th, 2025 12:51 pm
james_davis_nicoll: (Default)
[personal profile] james_davis_nicoll
Multiple sources report the death of SF author John Varley.

AIs Exploiting Smart Contracts

Dec. 11th, 2025 05:06 pm
[syndicated profile] bruce_schneier_feed

Posted by Bruce Schneier

I have long maintained that smart contracts are a dumb idea: that a human process is actually a security feature.

Here’s some interesting research on training AIs to automatically exploit smart contracts:

AI models are increasingly good at cyber tasks, as we’ve written about before. But what is the economic impact of these capabilities? In a recent MATS and Anthropic Fellows project, our scholars investigated this question by evaluating AI agents’ ability to exploit smart contracts on Smart CONtracts Exploitation benchmark (SCONE-bench)­a new benchmark they built comprising 405 contracts that were actually exploited between 2020 and 2025. On contracts exploited after the latest knowledge cutoffs (June 2025 for Opus 4.5 and March 2025 for other models), Claude Opus 4.5, Claude Sonnet 4.5, and GPT-5 developed exploits collectively worth $4.6 million, establishing a concrete lower bound for the economic harm these capabilities could enable. Going beyond retrospective analysis, we evaluated both Sonnet 4.5 and GPT-5 in simulation against 2,849 recently deployed contracts without any known vulnerabilities. Both agents uncovered two novel zero-day vulnerabilities and produced exploits worth $3,694, with GPT-5 doing so at an API cost of $3,476. This demonstrates as a proof-of-concept that profitable, real-world autonomous exploitation is technically feasible, a finding that underscores the need for proactive adoption of AI for defense.

Composure

Dec. 11th, 2025 04:30 pm
[syndicated profile] mikehoye_feed

Posted by mhoye

On yet another foray into the list of opinions I have that I’m sure are making me progressively more unemployable by the day, I asked some people on the internet: who is doing interesting work on software composability these days and where do I find them?

Selfie.

The last three really interesting ideas I’ve seen in this space are nushell ysh (previously or maybe …hybridly? the Oil Shell) and … powershell.

Powershell. Of all things.

To clarify my motives here: I think Docker is Bad Actually. I think Kubernetes is bad and Flatpak is bad and Snaps are bad and App Stores are bad and the Wayland security model is also bad.

Specifically, they’re bad for humans and human-scale computing.

All of these technologies are fundamentally the same shape: isolation and disconnection in the name of an unelaborated security, a safety that carefully, meticulously avoids fully explaining safe for and from who, safety of what from what. Near-identical iterations of near-identical ideas that are purpose-built to prevent the interoperation and composition of software and their main utility is to keep business models and their owners Free From the risks of user agency and independence.

I think the biggest utility and main beneficiary of the last decade of grafting SAAS-vendor security and deployment models into human-scale computing has been to prevent humans from even having the words we need, much less the tools, to describe a possible better computation future. I’m sure they’re great for warehouse-computer hyper-rentiers and the full stack vassal class they’ve cultivated, but at the human scale I believe all of these policy-tools are just symptoms of a profound failure of trust and imagination, in design and intention an explicit denial of human agency.

I think that even in the beginning any thoughtful deliberation about how we shape our tools makes you a feral outlier, and we have little appreciation for how fast our tools start shaping us after that. And I get it, I know how much easier it is to automate malice than foster collaboration now and I wonder if maybe I’m the only person in the world afflicted with this particular flavour of geometric synesthesia but the absolute paucity of ambition, the deep-rooted distrust of the operator in this world we’re colonizing with idea-machines kills me.

The program Bentley asked Knuth to write is one that’s become familiar to people who use languages with serious text-handling capabilities: Read a file of text, determine the n most frequently used words, and print out a sorted list of those words along with their frequencies.

Knuth wrote his program in WEB, a literate programming system of his own devising that used Pascal as its programming language. His program used a clever, purpose-built data structure for keeping track of the words and frequency counts; and the article interleaved with it presented the program lucidly. McIlroy’s review started with an appreciation of Knuth’s presentation and the literate programming technique in general. He discussed the cleverness of the data structure and Knuth’s implementation, pointed out a bug or two, and made suggestions as to how the article could be improved.

And then he calmly and clearly eviscerated the very foundation of Knuth’s program.

What people remember about his review is that McIlroy wrote a six-command shell pipeline that was a complete (and bug-free) replacement for Knuth’s 10+ pages of Pascal.

(True story: I’ve got half of Bentley’s script in my .bash_aliases file – alias count="sort | uniq -c | sort -n" – because it’s so useful so often.)

All this is a long winded way for me to say, “If this thing happens over here, do this other thing over there” – the ability to, the access to, the tools to say that, are the absolute least that anyone should expect from a computer we own. Anyone should be able to tell their machine to do that work for them, without permission, without dependency, without a round trip through US-East-1 and a check to see if whoever sold you the hardware thinks that’s allowed or not or gosh-maybe-that’s-not-brand-values-aligned today. But as far as I can tell the last time that power was accessibly available, even just barely, to anyone who is not a full time professional computer-toucher was Applescript.

And Applescript is still out there, sure, but you don’t know anyone who cares about it and even if you care, you don’t know anyone else. Powershell, one of however many versions of it exists doesn’t ship by default anymore – again, because “security”, think of the children! – and finding it on a non-Win system is like finding a unicorn that’s also a coelacanth.

Here in Unixland, apart from nushell and ysh we just never got there, not to anything even vaguely like this. We don’t have structured logging or userland event-driven interop in any way that matters, we’re all stringing together shell scripts in cron and parsing strings out of tail -f like we’re rubbing sticks together to make fire. Even init is firmly in the hands of the computer-renters now, people so fundamentally at odds with the idea of human-scale computing that “/home is a tempfile we can purge” is something they’ll just roll out like personal systems don’t exist.

And, not to make too fine a point on it, but if you look around the world you can ask yourself if you see anything else that’s sort of the same shape. A mandate of seamless, contained simplicity and understandability, sold as security and safety that you secretly suspect is about ease-of-measurement, not really anything else. easily measured, easily counted, a quiet tyranny of manageability.But we cannot build healthy communities out of stacks of shipping containers and three lunchables a day is not living, no matter easy to measure, easy to deploy and manage, each well contained, understandable and hygienic, and these are the design principles of a urinal, not a human system and not the human system of human systems we call society.

There has to be another path through this. Our choices can’t be de-facto retrocomputing – and let’s not lie to ourselves, as-is the terminal in 2025 is de-facto retrocomputing – or self-inflected SAAS. There has to be a better set of choices out there than high-gloss zero-interop isolatives and sending square-peg text through the sed/awk lathe until fit some jagged hole we had to claw out ourselves, than participating in the seamless financialization of a world half-covered in epoxy where everybody needs a hall pass to the NIC and a permission slip from Azure(MSFT) or GCP(GOOG) to tie a noun they own to a verb they chose.

And I think that in the end that humans sized, human shaped computing, the tools that we can hold in our hands that fit in our hands, are going to be the only computing that lasts and the only computing matters.

We have to be able to build for ourselves and each other and teach each other how to build for ourselves each other. But I take a lot of optimism from the fact that there are a lot of people out there who – in whole or in part, some overlap, some tension – get it. The permacomputing people, the meshtastic/LORA people, nushell and ysh and a whole burgeoning Fediverse, all of it. Maybe we’re on our way, if we can push the logic further down into the roots of the tools where it belongs.

I mean, all we need to do is revisit the last thirty or forty years of free-software fundamentals and rearchitect them centered on the human operator instead of software landlords. How hard could it be?

Anyway, back to looking for work. I’m sure this has all made me 100% more desirable as a prospective employee, but caring about humans more than other available options gets that way at times. Yay for us, go team.

[syndicated profile] scalziwhatever_feed

Posted by Athena Scalzi

Or maybe Moving Irrationally Angrily? Because both are true.

You may have seen on here a bit ago that I got a house. Well, you would probably expect someone to be happy about this sort of thing, or at least pretty excited, which I am, but it has been completely overshadowed by stress and anxiety, and I’ve been having a really hard time with moving.

Since the move began, from the get-go I was immediately overwhelmed. Right off the bat, I was distressed by the inspection, which while it went “well” still revealed that there were plenty of things that needed fixing.

I was overwhelmed with the fact that I had to transfer utilities into my name, hire movers, get internet installed, pack everything up and then unpack everything and put it away somewhere. The previous people took their washer and dryer, so had to go buy those and have those delivered and installed, plus got a new microwave so had to have that installed, now this entire week has been electricians and insulation guys and a plumber, and you get the picture.

Yes, I know that transferring utilities and getting bills and internet and whatnot is completely normal and a regular adult thing to have to do, but I’ve never fucking done it before, okay? It’s a little stressful.

I knew moving would be hard, but I didn’t realize how hard it was going to be for me. The overwhelm shut me down. The stress made me unable to function. I wasn’t coping well. I couldn’t bring myself to do anything. And not just stuff related to moving, I wasn’t doing anything.

For a bit there, I was crying everyday, the to-do list getting longer and longer and me getting more stressed and depressed. It felt like every time I checked something off the to-do list, two more tasks would pop up in its place. It’s a hydra of a house. And yes, I know, “welcome to being a homeowner.”

While I’m largely through the move, with most things being in decent order and shape, there’s still so much to be done. While I haven’t been in the trenches this week like I previously was, I’m still not doing great emotionally. A big reason for this is because of how many people have been in the house working this week.

I know they’re here to do the work that needs to be done and of course I appreciate their service and whatnot, but it’s becoming hard to be stuck in the house while four guys are here from 9am to 4pm and I don’t even have internet or power in some of the rooms because the electricians are actively working. It’s not like I’m nervous to have men in the house or anything like that, but I am on alert that there are people in my house and if I leave my room I’m going to be in their way or something. And I can’t even do laundry or dishes or shower or something productive. I just have to sit there and listen to them drill and bang around and do their work. And they track SO MUCH MUD IN!

And I’m tired of people being late all the time. The internet guy said he’d be here from 8-10am and that installation would take about two hours. So I planned my day expecting the guy to be done at around noon or one at the latest. So I practically waited at the door until he came, and the guy didn’t even show up until 11:45am, and then didn’t leave until 4pm! My day felt like it was gone!

What it comes down to, I think, is that I don’t feel at peace (yet) in my home. I feel trapped and stressed and I can’t find my fucking pans to cook with. I want eggs for breakfast gosh dang it.

Ugh, this just sucks. And I know everyone says moving sucks, but boy does it suck. I underestimated the suckening. And I underestimated how poorly I was going to handle it all.

I’ve been angry, and lashing out a lot. My patience is low and my stress is high, and I keep snapping at people close to me. Then I feel bad afterwards and cry about that, too.

Also, word of advice, don’t move the week of Thanksgiving, and don’t move when it’s fucking cold as shit and snowing outside. Normally, I really like the holiday season, but I feel like my festive spirit is being ruined by the moving stress. December is flying by and yet everyday is also exceedingly long.

I am looking forward to this part being over. Soon, hopefully. I want to be happy in my home.

-AMS