This time last year
Mar. 16th, 2021 08:22 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
jackI have been looking over my diary from this time last year. I wrote several entries "dear future historian" trying to capture how I felt, what I felt sure of, what I didn't know.
I'm trying not to dwell on this too much. I think I felt like if it got to the point of a national crisis it was likely to last six months to two years one way or another, which now looks pretty accurate. I deliberately didn't predict WHAT, whether we'd get a vaccine, or competent government, or quick reliable tests, or it would be awful but then mostly over.
The first week in march we knew covid was spreading in London and the government weren't taking any effective action. We were willing to travel to London but knew it would be the last time. The second week, we were judging what was safe day by day based on how far it was likely to spread. I went to the pub and gym on about Tuesday I think, but didn't on Thursday.
This week, the third week, we both had our employers start working from home. The fourth week, the government brought in lockdown, and I was relieved they weren't just going to do nothing for months
A couple of weeks before I'd been thinking surely it's obvious that Italy failed to contain the infection, we need to quarantine borders now and if we don't it's too late. And then they failed to lockdown London before it spread out of London. And it was too late.
This time I thought it was unlikely but possible that the infection would get out of control and that would be bad enough food deliveries might suffer over the summer. So I was trying to predict and prepare for whatever happened. I still think my estimates were about right
I thought it was inevitable that we'd either have a lockdown lasting months or the infection would run epidemic. But a lot of other people still weren't. I remember urging people to be prepared, maybe it wouldn't happen, but if we didn't have lockdown, be ready for 18 months of "stay inside or die. I remember people saying "three week lockdown" like it was plausible. I remember asking a receptionist at the gym, "do you know how long you'll be open" meaning "forever" but she thought I meant "tonight"
And all the talk about "flatten the curve". I think the conclusion was "yes that's what we should do" but "no flattening the curve below 'hospitals overwhelmed' isn't an exit strategy, it needs either reducing to 0 or some other solution".
I'm trying not to dwell on this too much. I think I felt like if it got to the point of a national crisis it was likely to last six months to two years one way or another, which now looks pretty accurate. I deliberately didn't predict WHAT, whether we'd get a vaccine, or competent government, or quick reliable tests, or it would be awful but then mostly over.
The first week in march we knew covid was spreading in London and the government weren't taking any effective action. We were willing to travel to London but knew it would be the last time. The second week, we were judging what was safe day by day based on how far it was likely to spread. I went to the pub and gym on about Tuesday I think, but didn't on Thursday.
This week, the third week, we both had our employers start working from home. The fourth week, the government brought in lockdown, and I was relieved they weren't just going to do nothing for months
A couple of weeks before I'd been thinking surely it's obvious that Italy failed to contain the infection, we need to quarantine borders now and if we don't it's too late. And then they failed to lockdown London before it spread out of London. And it was too late.
This time I thought it was unlikely but possible that the infection would get out of control and that would be bad enough food deliveries might suffer over the summer. So I was trying to predict and prepare for whatever happened. I still think my estimates were about right
I thought it was inevitable that we'd either have a lockdown lasting months or the infection would run epidemic. But a lot of other people still weren't. I remember urging people to be prepared, maybe it wouldn't happen, but if we didn't have lockdown, be ready for 18 months of "stay inside or die. I remember people saying "three week lockdown" like it was plausible. I remember asking a receptionist at the gym, "do you know how long you'll be open" meaning "forever" but she thought I meant "tonight"
And all the talk about "flatten the curve". I think the conclusion was "yes that's what we should do" but "no flattening the curve below 'hospitals overwhelmed' isn't an exit strategy, it needs either reducing to 0 or some other solution".