Well, exactly. That was argument #22. It should also say the first option in the enumeration (total=£0) is ruled out also, I think, so you choose between the other two.
But I don't find that a satisfactory conclusion, because (a) the other argument #11 also sounds pretty convincing, and (b) if you accept the "precondition the worlds I could be in" type argument, it seems like you're either affecting the past when you make your choice (otherwise it wouldn't matter what you chose) or choosing which of multiple universes you live in.
Come to think of it, a simplified version of the experiment would be "we have run this experiment many times, and we observe that everyone we try it on pushed this button, here". Do you push the button? That removes the choice, leaving only the stark assumption that you can be successfully predicted.
no subject
Date: 2009-04-15 10:53 pm (UTC)But I don't find that a satisfactory conclusion, because (a) the other argument #11 also sounds pretty convincing, and (b) if you accept the "precondition the worlds I could be in" type argument, it seems like you're either affecting the past when you make your choice (otherwise it wouldn't matter what you chose) or choosing which of multiple universes you live in.
Come to think of it, a simplified version of the experiment would be "we have run this experiment many times, and we observe that everyone we try it on pushed this button, here". Do you push the button? That removes the choice, leaving only the stark assumption that you can be successfully predicted.