Artificial Luck
Sep. 27th, 2006 11:55 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
jackThink of a fictional character who is always lucky. It's Matt Cauthon, isn't it? Think of another.
Actually, it's tricky; it's a common theme, but everyone handles it differently. How could we define this?
* Consider the case of short range luck, whcih means all your dice come up sixes, etc. If it works out over your life, or over your descendants' lives, you might just not be able to tell -- someone has to be successful, how can you tell if someone's luck was supernatural? But if whatever you see has unlikely outcomes, whether it's good in the long run or not, something strange is certainly going on.
Teela Brown is a confusing example, her luck seems to apply to close things and far things in waves: an unlikely event happens, when something much more minor earlier could have had the same effect.
* Is it good luck? Or just unlikely things? Either way, does it imply the universe is oriented to personality, and hence may have some sort of God? Or at least support some spiritualism? The definition of unusual luck only makes sense if you differentiate '66666' from '51254', getting those rolls in that order have the same chance, only our perception of them sets them apart, so if one is favoured, so is our perception.
I'm fascinated by this sort of argument. I think it's correct, though *I* think in the real world, personality is *not* granted any special position. I've seen it enacted only once, I think, in the comic "1/0". The characters are aware of the comic, and interact with the author as god, and when some of them doubt, suspect his existence because there are things personalities can do other things can't, like have ghosts.
OTOH, think of quantum mechanics being discovered. The description needed an observer. Everyone knew how to understand it, but couldn't put it in non-personality terms. (Then came many-worlds interpretation, which was scary, but consistent.) Could that have been used to argue for a god in the same way? Not really. So maybe we'll come up with a good definition of what constitutes being lucky yet, maybe in terms of entropy of a larger system, or something?
* Is it fair to gamble? It's fair to have a bar bet. "I'm going to roll these dice and they're all going to be six. Do you bet against me?" Because it's a standard "I know something you don't, do you disbelieve me?" thing, the other person has a choice of seeing if they can see the trick or not.
But can you sit down at a poker game? OT1H, you have a definite advantage.
OTOH, it's defined to be luck. *Someone* is going to be lucky. Are you actually sure it's going to be you? Does it make a difference? In fiction it seems like a get out: if the hero happens to be lucky, we cheer. If the hero is *always* lucky, we sort of gloss over it.
* How can you most entertainingly abuse this?
Help me out here, guys, I don't actually seem to have many ideas.
You can wager unconsionable amounts of money, or at unconscionable odds. Either buy a few lottery tickets, or borrow and bet $lots at short odds a couple of times.
You can take day to day risks. Walk through the bad part of town. Teela Brown apparently even never grazed her leg on a cupboard door.
How far does it stretch? What are the chances of all molecules in air/water going upward at the same time and supporting you? For how long?
Introduce chance to things as much as possible. Maybe going into a bookie and betting that they'll irrigate the sahara wouldn't work, because there's too much momentum behind the status quo for it to just happen. But talking to people with plans and picking the right one, and picking the right person to fund it, etc. could be done.
Little details. Never bother remembering local phone numbers, just dial, it's only a million to one. If it can work once as the climax of a book, it can happen every time, right?
Go on, what else
Actually, it's tricky; it's a common theme, but everyone handles it differently. How could we define this?
* Consider the case of short range luck, whcih means all your dice come up sixes, etc. If it works out over your life, or over your descendants' lives, you might just not be able to tell -- someone has to be successful, how can you tell if someone's luck was supernatural? But if whatever you see has unlikely outcomes, whether it's good in the long run or not, something strange is certainly going on.
Teela Brown is a confusing example, her luck seems to apply to close things and far things in waves: an unlikely event happens, when something much more minor earlier could have had the same effect.
* Is it good luck? Or just unlikely things? Either way, does it imply the universe is oriented to personality, and hence may have some sort of God? Or at least support some spiritualism? The definition of unusual luck only makes sense if you differentiate '66666' from '51254', getting those rolls in that order have the same chance, only our perception of them sets them apart, so if one is favoured, so is our perception.
I'm fascinated by this sort of argument. I think it's correct, though *I* think in the real world, personality is *not* granted any special position. I've seen it enacted only once, I think, in the comic "1/0". The characters are aware of the comic, and interact with the author as god, and when some of them doubt, suspect his existence because there are things personalities can do other things can't, like have ghosts.
OTOH, think of quantum mechanics being discovered. The description needed an observer. Everyone knew how to understand it, but couldn't put it in non-personality terms. (Then came many-worlds interpretation, which was scary, but consistent.) Could that have been used to argue for a god in the same way? Not really. So maybe we'll come up with a good definition of what constitutes being lucky yet, maybe in terms of entropy of a larger system, or something?
* Is it fair to gamble? It's fair to have a bar bet. "I'm going to roll these dice and they're all going to be six. Do you bet against me?" Because it's a standard "I know something you don't, do you disbelieve me?" thing, the other person has a choice of seeing if they can see the trick or not.
But can you sit down at a poker game? OT1H, you have a definite advantage.
OTOH, it's defined to be luck. *Someone* is going to be lucky. Are you actually sure it's going to be you? Does it make a difference? In fiction it seems like a get out: if the hero happens to be lucky, we cheer. If the hero is *always* lucky, we sort of gloss over it.
* How can you most entertainingly abuse this?
Help me out here, guys, I don't actually seem to have many ideas.
You can wager unconsionable amounts of money, or at unconscionable odds. Either buy a few lottery tickets, or borrow and bet $lots at short odds a couple of times.
You can take day to day risks. Walk through the bad part of town. Teela Brown apparently even never grazed her leg on a cupboard door.
How far does it stretch? What are the chances of all molecules in air/water going upward at the same time and supporting you? For how long?
Introduce chance to things as much as possible. Maybe going into a bookie and betting that they'll irrigate the sahara wouldn't work, because there's too much momentum behind the status quo for it to just happen. But talking to people with plans and picking the right one, and picking the right person to fund it, etc. could be done.
Little details. Never bother remembering local phone numbers, just dial, it's only a million to one. If it can work once as the climax of a book, it can happen every time, right?
Go on, what else
no subject
Date: 2006-09-27 12:34 pm (UTC)Presumably I only want to abuse it if I'm not happy despite being lucky, which seems rather, ah, unlucky.
no subject
Date: 2006-09-27 02:19 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-09-27 12:47 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-09-27 02:20 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-09-27 12:49 pm (UTC)Maybe going into a bookie and betting that they'll irrigate the sahara wouldn't work
The bookie would be closed. Or have just burned down. Or something else would stop you placing a bet you'd be sure to lose.
Matt who? I thought of Teela, though her luck is as you say a funny sort of thing.
no subject
Date: 2006-09-27 02:24 pm (UTC)Matt who? I thought of Teela, though her luck is as you say a funny sort of thing.
Sorry, from Robert Jordan's Wheel of Time, an endless gambler who is always lucky (generally in the reasonably short term). Also, the main characters are fated to have an affect a little like the infinite improbibility drive.
no subject
Date: 2006-09-27 04:47 pm (UTC)To keep the poker ethical, you could choose to always play against cheats and hope your luck outweighed their cheating. Or you could play pool against Paul Newman.
Pool hustling would probably be a more entertaining form of abuse, come to think of it, than merely reliably winning at cards.