jack

I was never that interested in watching England win or lose their individual matches, but dad and I always enjoyed guessing what combination of circumstances might let them (or Scotland) get through the group stage anyway. It was more complicated when the teams that went through to the knockout were the first two in each group, plus the best four third-place teams. I was surprised to learn they'd simplified it :)

As I understand it, England have lost to Uruguay and Italy, and Costa Rica have beaten Uruguay. And the only way England can go through is if Italy beat everyone and England beat Costa Rica. Then Italy go through first, and everyone else has a three-way tie for second place, in a triangle of England beat Costa Rica beat Uruguay beat England.

Then, England need to beat everyone else on goal difference. England've lost to Italy and Uruguay by only one goal each, and Uruguay lost 3-1 to CR, so if England win their last match and Uruguay lose their last match, there's no way Uruguay can catch up on goal difference.

Costa Rica currently have a goal difference of +2, and England of -2. If Costa Rica lose to England and Italy by one goal each, that puts them at 0 and England at 1. So for England to beat CR on goal difference, they need to be beat CR by two goals, or have Italy beat them by three goals.

Alternatively, if England can beat CR only by one goal, and Italy beat CR only by two goals, they will be tied on goal difference, and it's decided on goals scored. If CR score any more goals at all, England can't catch up (without beating CR on goal difference), but if they don't, England and CR will tie on goals scored and England will go through due to having beaten CR in the game against each other.

Have I got this necessary combination of events correct? :)

ETA: Nevermind. Well done Costa Rica! :)