Epistemology #0
Mar. 23rd, 2006 06:57 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
jackRecently I saw discussions on AI, and the possibilities of representing its knowledge by assinging % confidences (subjective probabilities) to statements, and the problems where a belief in one part of the brain didn't match that in another. I've read a lot around the topic, and Hempel's paradox, and Bayesian reasoning, and upper-and-lower probabilities, and may follow up with some contentful posts, but I experienced that cognitive dissonance today, and thought I'd record it.
Me: Ooh, there's another Cat wizard book by Diane Duane. It's being partially published online, it's really interesting to see professional authors continuing to investigate that. And she says "beta readers".
Me: Hold on, *have* I read the first one?
Me: I ordered it from amazon marketplace, I was excited about that.
Me: The books arrived.
Me: I've read all of them but [other name] and [other other name].
Me: So why don't I remember it?
Me: Checks autoconfirm email. Paid for.
Me: Doh! Goes to write previous post. Emails amazon. Checks bank statement and sees refund.
Me: Hmmm. Apparently that chain of 95% certainties was weaker than all the links, and something fell into the 1-0.95^n gap. "The" books arrived, I didn't stop to think if that was "every" book...
Me: Ooh, there's another Cat wizard book by Diane Duane. It's being partially published online, it's really interesting to see professional authors continuing to investigate that. And she says "beta readers".
Me: Hold on, *have* I read the first one?
Me: I ordered it from amazon marketplace, I was excited about that.
Me: The books arrived.
Me: I've read all of them but [other name] and [other other name].
Me: So why don't I remember it?
Me: Checks autoconfirm email. Paid for.
Me: Doh! Goes to write previous post. Emails amazon. Checks bank statement and sees refund.
Me: Hmmm. Apparently that chain of 95% certainties was weaker than all the links, and something fell into the 1-0.95^n gap. "The" books arrived, I didn't stop to think if that was "every" book...