Coalition negotiations

So, we have results for 640/650 seats. It looks like the final result will be (within a few seats) is something like:

Con: 308 (Edit: including Con independent and undeclared safe seat)
Lab: 259 258
Lib: 57

DUP 8

Sinn Fein 5

SNP 6
Plaid 3
SDLP 3

Assuming Sinn Fein continue to refuse to participate, you need 323 for a government majority. What coalitions are numerically possible, however unlikely, either as a minority government with support from another party, or as a coalition government?

1. Con+LibDem. Probably the most plausible.
2. Con+DUP + ~7 votes from SNP, Plaid, SDLP, Lib or Labour. It seems they probably don't have quite enough votes for this, as I don't think the small parties are natural allies, but they may want to try??
3. Lab + Lib + ~7 votes from SNP, Plaid, SDLP, or Con. I would probably prefer this "everyone but con" coalition, but so many people hate labour I doubt it could hold together??
4. Lab+Lib+Con. Very unlikely, but it worked in the war.
5. Lab+Con. No no no no. They can't ever be seen to work together or what's the point, and just about the only things where Lab+Con agree and Lib don't are horrible civil liberty violations.

But I don't really know what's workable. Does anyone have a better idea of what's possible?

On the continent, the approved procedure (not always working) would be a period of several weeks (or more) of negotiations, where leaders would compare various coalitions, and agree in advance what the concessions would be. More of a balance between two largeish parties, as opposed to simply purchasing a smaller party outright with a very specific promise (which happens is a large party is _just_ short of a majority).

For instance, Lib/Con would be most likely, but it means both have to be prepared to walk away if it doesn't work, and whatever Lib wants needs to be worked into the policy from the start, not tacked on later when they get fed up of being used and stop cooperating. But UK doesn't seem quite used to this process.

What should I be hoping for?

Election news in brief

* There was a big swing to Con from Lab, and also somewhat from Lib, which disappointed people who'd hoped for more Lib. But the swing was nowhere near as large as it might have been considering how many unpopular things Lab have done in govt.

* [Edit] Julian Huppert, who many people I know in Cambridge know from school or university, replaces the most excellent David Howarth as incumbent LibDem MP. One person I know was virulently against, but most people thought he would be very good.

* The excellent LibDem Evan Harris lost his seat in Oxford by a hairsbreadth :(

* The BNP and UKIP continue to have no seats. The BNP's big push was here in Stoke, but they had no more share of the vote than last time, still comfortably behind the major parties. (Presumably because of greater turn-out: if apathy returns, they will probably grow proportionally again.) I still need to see how many city council seats they acquired.

* Green have acquired their first MP! They may never do better than that, but I'm pleased to see one green MP in parliament: hopefully it will be a good platform to raise their many good policies, and yet not enough that the number of questionable/anti-science policies will matter.

Bluffer's guide to the passover meal part V: order of service

The piece of Hebrew writing called the Haggadah is the traditional instructions for the passover meal. Basically "here is the story of the exodus and a number of other traditions". People normally do some subset of this.

You should find one of these. Preferably one with text in your native language, or at least a language you read, or at least an alphabet you read. It also helps if the most important things are printed biggest, because then it's much more natural to have a service with, rather than without, the important bits.

But the basic things you should include are:

The story of the exodus I

( Read more... )

It's generally considered polite to leave a brief respectful silence rather than attempt to capture with the best sound a drunken person can make out of common eating utensils the concept of the Holiest of Holies, Blessed be He, God, striking down the Angel of Death. Maybe thunder.