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jackI work through every incident I can find. The conclusion is at the end. Both major theories seem plausible, only one piece of evidence really leans, though there are several important gaps to be filled.
Theories
1. Working for Dumbledore, killing him was part of some plan.
2. Working for Voldemort
3. Playing both ends against the middle
4. Been bewitched, or some sort of dual personality.
#3 and #4 would make sense, but somehow be unsatisfying. I think everyone bets on
#2 -- what's obvious -- or #1 -- what they want.
It would be interesting if Snape were evil but non-Voldemort. Maybe he tricks Harry
and V and D into killing each other and then rules the world. It'd fit his style :)
Anyway.
Evidence:
* Snape must be able to occlude his thoughts from at least one of Dumbledore and
Voldemort, otherwise he couldn't play double agent at all. Therefore he needn't go
out of his way to help the side he's spying on.
* He genuinely hates Harry and Sirius (whether or not he would be willing to betray
them). It's obvious, and Dumbledore admits Snape couldn't overcome it. I shall
assume this isn't part of a pretense.
* He loves and researches dark magic, but doesn't necessarily abuse it.
* Until the end of book four, Snape *could* have been unaware of Voldemort's
return, or have avoided seeking him out until he had to, but repented. He
apparently persuaded V of this.
* In this time, he saves Harry's life when he didn't have to, presumably genuinely.
* Dumbledore says this is in gratitude for James saving his life, even though they
still hated each other. But his betraying the prophecy to them must have weighed
more heavily on him than was described at the time.
* Dumbledore never lets Snape teach DADA, even when it means accepting Umbridge! Is
he afraid Snape will revert? Or just think Snape would be like Karkarov, on D's
side, but teaching arts considerably blacker than he would like his students to
think is normal?
* From the end of book four, he knows Voldemort's returned and anything he does has to be justified to both D and V, so should be examined carefully.
* I shall assume for the sake of sanity that he has a coherent plan with
Dumbledore, a coherent plan with Voldemort, or was going to work for D but V turned
him when he met him. He might have switched more, but that would be impossible to
examine. There are probably things we won't understand though.
* At the gathering of death eaters V says "One too cowardly to return... one who has left me for ever." Why does he differentiate them? Was he suspictious of Snape before? Why not assume both were just too cowardly to return? Is it just that Snape's at Hogwarts and presumably allied himslef with D? He must have been convinced by Snape's explanation -- Snape used the exact wording in his explanation to Bellatrix, so presumably he is claiming .
* At the end of book four, he is angry with Fudge for not believing in V. If he
were serving V he should just have kept quiet. However, this was before he met V.
And also, even if he were going to serve V, he likely would have been very on edge
anyway.
* He provided veritaserum to interrogate Moody. If he were serving Voldemort, he
could have given a fake. However, this could easily require preperation and might
easily have been detected, or he might just not have thought of it.
Book five
* He continues to be snide to Harry and Sirius, but he would be
either way. And he reports to the order on what V's doing, but obviously he would
be either way, either truth or lies. Only in the latter parts do we find definite
actions.
* Snape teaches Harry Occlumency. Notice that while snide, he does seem to be
genuinely teaching -- he's reluctantly impressed when Harry succeeds, angry when he
doesn't, and does without complaint that Harry's going to be jinxing him.
* We don't know for sure if Snape were teaching him though. Ron's theory that he
might be opening his mind further is still possible.
* He draws attention to Harry's dreams. If he knew what V were doing, he wouldn't.
But if he were working for V, V might not have told him what he was doing, so he
would still be curious.
* He is genuinely angry when Harry used the penseive.
* He kicks Harry out. If he were subverting the process for V, he wouldn't. If he
were working for V, but not, he might well seize on the excuse. If he were working
for D, he let his feelings get the better of him. (One site made the point that
Harry wasn't really doing his best himself.)
* Umbridge asks him for veritaserum and he supposedly gives her a fake. This is a
throwaway line, I assume it true, and to be Snape working for the order. If you try
to trace the consequences, you'd get all sorts of things. She might have discovered
V really was back, though she mightn't have believed it. She might have discovered
H was breaking lots of rules and expelled him (where he might be easy for V to
find). Since you can't tell what would have benefitted whom, you can't deduce much.
* Umbridge summons him again. He denies veritaserum, and passes on Harry's message
to the order. Again, we don't know what best would serve whom. If he's working for D, he should protect H from Umbridge, inform the Order, and if possible talk to H and stop him doing anything stupid.
* If he's working for V, and knows what's going on, he should be getting Harry away so he can go to the Ministry himself. And not letting the Order there, as the prophecy is as important to V as almost anything else. If he doesn't know what's going on, he might do either.
* He refues veritaserum. That could be either.
* He stops Crabbe strangling Neville. This doesn't serve anyone particular, it is presumably genuine non-murderousness, so he's not completely evil, but doesn't rule out working for V.
* He informs the Order. However, they arrive too late to stop V getting the prophecy. He could have inserted a delay before telling them, we can't know for sure.
* Harry disappears on thestrals before Snape has a chance to see him, whatever he might have done.
Book six
* In Spinner's. Snape is his wonderful arrogant self to the other three.
* His justifications don't sound entirely plausible to me, but they're obviously supposed to be -- true or not, he certainly has convinced V and the DEs that he serves them.
* I can't tell if he's bluffing about knowing what's going on. Obviously Rowling doesn't want *us* to know. Snape carefully doesn't mention anything until they have. And there's a mention of his face going blank. He could well be finding out everything he can.
* Why on earth doesn't he refuse to make the vow claiming V wouldn't want him to? Shouldn't he do that whichever side he's on?
* The vow. See below (1)
* Harry overhearing Snape talking to Draco. These overheared conversations are always informative -- literally true, but amusingly misleading. Snape is obviously trying to keep an eye on Draco, though D knows all about it. Again, he'd do this whoever's side he was on, no-one wants Draco blundering around killing random people.
* Hagrid overhead Snape arguing with Dumbledore, saying "He doesn't want to do it any more". (2)
* When they return to Hogwarts with the locket Dumbledore wants Snape particularly. (3)
* Dumbledore pleads with Snape (4).
* Snape protects Draco as they flee. Well, he likes him.
* Snape avoids hurting Harry. It feels like he has good reason -- though he says V has ordered it.
================================================
Evidence:
(1) The vow. Possibilities:
1. Snape's working for V and genuinely offers to kill D.
2. Snape was bluffing, and by the time he made the vow it was too late.
3. Snape made the vow intending to break it, and give his life.
4. Snape thought D's life was less important than his role as a spy.
5. Snape thinks he can wriggle out of the vow.
Any of 1-4 seem possible. I think JKR wouldn't have introduced the concept at this point unless she meant to stick to it, so I disbelieve 5. (And assume some rationalisation for why everyone doesn't have to make them, eg. they're circumventable with enough *prior* effort, or they damage the receiver.)
(2) S/D argument
1. He's working for V. Actually this *doesn't* really make sense. If so, he wouldn't be disagreeing with him openly except as part of a strategam, he wouldn't openly rebel *now*.
2. He doesn't want to work for D any and defects. No way. Why now?
3. He's working for D. Makes most sense. What doesn't he want to do? Presumably whatever he and D planned with respect to Draco and the vow.
(3) Dumbledore asks Harry to fetch Snape, and tells him not to talk to anyone else, and reminds him he swore to obey.
This hints at some plan. Even if Snape were the only one who could heal him, he might still want any other teachers fetched. This suggests something secret is going on.
(4) Several people are suggesting that D wanted S to continue their plan. Of course, the obvious interpretation is that D was begging for his life, but he's never seemed that sort of person.
(5) Snape resents being called a coward. Either because he feels guilty for betraying V, or resentful to be insulted just after he's done something really difficult for him and H.
(6) Snape didn't kill other teachers and students when he might have. Would that have saved time? Were they his friends anyway? Or because he was still really on their side.
If we were Dumbledore, we'd probably know, because we could fill in the blanks. From Harry's PoV, either interpretation is possibly. Conclusions.
1. The only peice of evidence that isn't is (2) which is a small thing.
2. If D had a plan, it involved S or Draco killing him and going to V, otherwise the teachers could have fought off the death eaters together.
3. Also, it involved no-one knowing Snape was still good.
4. In which case, might it ruin everything for Harry to realise? cf. Foundation Trilogy.
5. I bet Dumbledore is important beyond the grave in some way. The afterlife is hinted at strongly with the mysterious archway and Nick's speech.
I'll do a follow-up about which I think is *narratively* most likely.
Theories
1. Working for Dumbledore, killing him was part of some plan.
2. Working for Voldemort
3. Playing both ends against the middle
4. Been bewitched, or some sort of dual personality.
#3 and #4 would make sense, but somehow be unsatisfying. I think everyone bets on
#2 -- what's obvious -- or #1 -- what they want.
It would be interesting if Snape were evil but non-Voldemort. Maybe he tricks Harry
and V and D into killing each other and then rules the world. It'd fit his style :)
Anyway.
Evidence:
* Snape must be able to occlude his thoughts from at least one of Dumbledore and
Voldemort, otherwise he couldn't play double agent at all. Therefore he needn't go
out of his way to help the side he's spying on.
* He genuinely hates Harry and Sirius (whether or not he would be willing to betray
them). It's obvious, and Dumbledore admits Snape couldn't overcome it. I shall
assume this isn't part of a pretense.
* He loves and researches dark magic, but doesn't necessarily abuse it.
* Until the end of book four, Snape *could* have been unaware of Voldemort's
return, or have avoided seeking him out until he had to, but repented. He
apparently persuaded V of this.
* In this time, he saves Harry's life when he didn't have to, presumably genuinely.
* Dumbledore says this is in gratitude for James saving his life, even though they
still hated each other. But his betraying the prophecy to them must have weighed
more heavily on him than was described at the time.
* Dumbledore never lets Snape teach DADA, even when it means accepting Umbridge! Is
he afraid Snape will revert? Or just think Snape would be like Karkarov, on D's
side, but teaching arts considerably blacker than he would like his students to
think is normal?
* From the end of book four, he knows Voldemort's returned and anything he does has to be justified to both D and V, so should be examined carefully.
* I shall assume for the sake of sanity that he has a coherent plan with
Dumbledore, a coherent plan with Voldemort, or was going to work for D but V turned
him when he met him. He might have switched more, but that would be impossible to
examine. There are probably things we won't understand though.
* At the gathering of death eaters V says "One too cowardly to return... one who has left me for ever." Why does he differentiate them? Was he suspictious of Snape before? Why not assume both were just too cowardly to return? Is it just that Snape's at Hogwarts and presumably allied himslef with D? He must have been convinced by Snape's explanation -- Snape used the exact wording in his explanation to Bellatrix, so presumably he is claiming .
* At the end of book four, he is angry with Fudge for not believing in V. If he
were serving V he should just have kept quiet. However, this was before he met V.
And also, even if he were going to serve V, he likely would have been very on edge
anyway.
* He provided veritaserum to interrogate Moody. If he were serving Voldemort, he
could have given a fake. However, this could easily require preperation and might
easily have been detected, or he might just not have thought of it.
Book five
* He continues to be snide to Harry and Sirius, but he would be
either way. And he reports to the order on what V's doing, but obviously he would
be either way, either truth or lies. Only in the latter parts do we find definite
actions.
* Snape teaches Harry Occlumency. Notice that while snide, he does seem to be
genuinely teaching -- he's reluctantly impressed when Harry succeeds, angry when he
doesn't, and does without complaint that Harry's going to be jinxing him.
* We don't know for sure if Snape were teaching him though. Ron's theory that he
might be opening his mind further is still possible.
* He draws attention to Harry's dreams. If he knew what V were doing, he wouldn't.
But if he were working for V, V might not have told him what he was doing, so he
would still be curious.
* He is genuinely angry when Harry used the penseive.
* He kicks Harry out. If he were subverting the process for V, he wouldn't. If he
were working for V, but not, he might well seize on the excuse. If he were working
for D, he let his feelings get the better of him. (One site made the point that
Harry wasn't really doing his best himself.)
* Umbridge asks him for veritaserum and he supposedly gives her a fake. This is a
throwaway line, I assume it true, and to be Snape working for the order. If you try
to trace the consequences, you'd get all sorts of things. She might have discovered
V really was back, though she mightn't have believed it. She might have discovered
H was breaking lots of rules and expelled him (where he might be easy for V to
find). Since you can't tell what would have benefitted whom, you can't deduce much.
* Umbridge summons him again. He denies veritaserum, and passes on Harry's message
to the order. Again, we don't know what best would serve whom. If he's working for D, he should protect H from Umbridge, inform the Order, and if possible talk to H and stop him doing anything stupid.
* If he's working for V, and knows what's going on, he should be getting Harry away so he can go to the Ministry himself. And not letting the Order there, as the prophecy is as important to V as almost anything else. If he doesn't know what's going on, he might do either.
* He refues veritaserum. That could be either.
* He stops Crabbe strangling Neville. This doesn't serve anyone particular, it is presumably genuine non-murderousness, so he's not completely evil, but doesn't rule out working for V.
* He informs the Order. However, they arrive too late to stop V getting the prophecy. He could have inserted a delay before telling them, we can't know for sure.
* Harry disappears on thestrals before Snape has a chance to see him, whatever he might have done.
Book six
* In Spinner's. Snape is his wonderful arrogant self to the other three.
* His justifications don't sound entirely plausible to me, but they're obviously supposed to be -- true or not, he certainly has convinced V and the DEs that he serves them.
* I can't tell if he's bluffing about knowing what's going on. Obviously Rowling doesn't want *us* to know. Snape carefully doesn't mention anything until they have. And there's a mention of his face going blank. He could well be finding out everything he can.
* Why on earth doesn't he refuse to make the vow claiming V wouldn't want him to? Shouldn't he do that whichever side he's on?
* The vow. See below (1)
* Harry overhearing Snape talking to Draco. These overheared conversations are always informative -- literally true, but amusingly misleading. Snape is obviously trying to keep an eye on Draco, though D knows all about it. Again, he'd do this whoever's side he was on, no-one wants Draco blundering around killing random people.
* Hagrid overhead Snape arguing with Dumbledore, saying "He doesn't want to do it any more". (2)
* When they return to Hogwarts with the locket Dumbledore wants Snape particularly. (3)
* Dumbledore pleads with Snape (4).
* Snape protects Draco as they flee. Well, he likes him.
* Snape avoids hurting Harry. It feels like he has good reason -- though he says V has ordered it.
================================================
Evidence:
(1) The vow. Possibilities:
1. Snape's working for V and genuinely offers to kill D.
2. Snape was bluffing, and by the time he made the vow it was too late.
3. Snape made the vow intending to break it, and give his life.
4. Snape thought D's life was less important than his role as a spy.
5. Snape thinks he can wriggle out of the vow.
Any of 1-4 seem possible. I think JKR wouldn't have introduced the concept at this point unless she meant to stick to it, so I disbelieve 5. (And assume some rationalisation for why everyone doesn't have to make them, eg. they're circumventable with enough *prior* effort, or they damage the receiver.)
(2) S/D argument
1. He's working for V. Actually this *doesn't* really make sense. If so, he wouldn't be disagreeing with him openly except as part of a strategam, he wouldn't openly rebel *now*.
2. He doesn't want to work for D any and defects. No way. Why now?
3. He's working for D. Makes most sense. What doesn't he want to do? Presumably whatever he and D planned with respect to Draco and the vow.
(3) Dumbledore asks Harry to fetch Snape, and tells him not to talk to anyone else, and reminds him he swore to obey.
This hints at some plan. Even if Snape were the only one who could heal him, he might still want any other teachers fetched. This suggests something secret is going on.
(4) Several people are suggesting that D wanted S to continue their plan. Of course, the obvious interpretation is that D was begging for his life, but he's never seemed that sort of person.
(5) Snape resents being called a coward. Either because he feels guilty for betraying V, or resentful to be insulted just after he's done something really difficult for him and H.
(6) Snape didn't kill other teachers and students when he might have. Would that have saved time? Were they his friends anyway? Or because he was still really on their side.
If we were Dumbledore, we'd probably know, because we could fill in the blanks. From Harry's PoV, either interpretation is possibly. Conclusions.
1. The only peice of evidence that isn't is (2) which is a small thing.
2. If D had a plan, it involved S or Draco killing him and going to V, otherwise the teachers could have fought off the death eaters together.
3. Also, it involved no-one knowing Snape was still good.
4. In which case, might it ruin everything for Harry to realise? cf. Foundation Trilogy.
5. I bet Dumbledore is important beyond the grave in some way. The afterlife is hinted at strongly with the mysterious archway and Nick's speech.
I'll do a follow-up about which I think is *narratively* most likely.