Epistemology #0

[jack]

Recently I saw discussions on AI, and the possibilities of representing its knowledge by assinging % confidences (subjective probabilities) to statements, and the problems where a belief in one part of the brain didn't match that in another. I've read a lot around the topic, and Hempel's paradox, and Bayesian reasoning, and upper-and-lower probabilities, and may follow up with some contentful posts, but I experienced that cognitive dissonance today, and thought I'd record it.

Me: Ooh, there's another Cat wizard book by Diane Duane. It's being partially published online, it's really interesting to see professional authors continuing to investigate that. And she says "beta readers".
Me: Hold on, *have* I read the first one?
Me: I ordered it from amazon marketplace, I was excited about that.
Me: The books arrived.
Me: I've read all of them but [other name] and [other other name].
Me: So why don't I remember it?
Me: Checks autoconfirm email. Paid for.
Me: Doh! Goes to write previous post. Emails amazon. Checks bank statement and sees refund.
Me: Hmmm. Apparently that chain of 95% certainties was weaker than all the links, and something fell into the 1-0.95^n gap. "The" books arrived, I didn't stop to think if that was "every" book...

Comments

[cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com]

That's exactly what I was going to say; now people have had time to follow modern fanfic, and then become published, and of course, they don't stop. I'm just not quite used to it, and very pleased.

Some people see a sharp division between eg. amateur writing and professional writing, whereas it seems more like a continuum.

PS. Everyone is always welcome in my journal (especially you! :)) but I'm always curious -- how did you come across this post? :)

[dduane.livejournal.com]

Oops, sorry for the delay. I was using Technorati to check who was linking to the blog. :)

[cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com]

Not at all, I saw on your info page that you are generally too busy to get to everything instantly.

Of course, that makes sense. And I see my link rather stands out as being the only one using The Big Meow as an example of epistomology :)

[cartesiandaemon.livejournal.com]

And, very pleased to meet you. I assume it's redundant but still pleasing to hear that I loved many of your books :)